Executive Summary
✅ Tailwinds
- + Major infrastructure projects like the Tren Maya and the new Tulum International Airport are enhancing accessibility and are expected to boost long-term property values.
- + Tulum is a key destination in Mexico's 2026 tourism plan, indicating continued government focus and promotion.
- + Property values in Quintana Roo have shown strong appreciation, outpacing the national average.
- + The hotel sector is experiencing a strong recovery with occupancy rates nearing 90%, which could eventually spill over to high-quality, well-managed rental properties.
⚠️ Headwinds
- ! There is a significant oversupply of vacation rental units, particularly condominiums, leading to low occupancy rates (around 43%) and downward pressure on rental income.
- ! The real estate market is experiencing a slowdown in absorption rates due to the glut of new developments.
- ! Critical infrastructure, such as paved roads, sewage, and reliable electricity, is lagging behind the pace of real estate development in newer neighborhoods like La Veleta and Region 15.
- ! Lack of recent, publicly available official data on zoning changes (PDU) and housing market indicators (SEDETUS) for 2026 creates uncertainty for due diligence.
Neighborhood Alpha
ALDEA ZAMA
As the most established luxury neighborhood, Aldea Zama offers the lowest risk profile and highest liquidity. Its superior infrastructure, including paved roads and underground utilities, provides a stable operating environment. It attracts a high-end tenant demographic, supporting both short- and long-term rental demand, making it a prime location for core and core-plus strategies.
LA VELETA
La Veleta represents a higher-risk, growth-oriented play. While its bohemian vibe attracts a steady stream of younger travelers and digital nomads, its investment case is severely hampered by neglected public infrastructure. Issues such as unpaved roads and poor drainage create significant operational challenges and potential for tenant dissatisfaction, particularly during the rainy season.
REGION 8
Positioned as an early-stage development, Region 8's appeal is its exclusivity and proximity to the beach. The investment thesis is speculative, heavily dependent on the successful execution of future infrastructure upgrades. It targets a niche, wellness-focused vacationer demographic, but currently carries substantial development and execution risk.
REGION 15
Region 15 presents the highest risk profile due to its nascent stage and critical infrastructure deficits, including a current lack of sewage systems, fully paved streets, and consistent water supply. While offering a lower cost basis, the area is characterized by heavy, ongoing construction and significant operational uncertainty, making it suitable only for highly risk-tolerant, long-term speculative capital.
Investment Conclusion
- Prioritize Asset Differentiation: Focus on asset classes with supply constraints, such as high-end villas, over the commoditized and oversupplied condominium market. These assets demonstrate more resilient demand and pricing power.
- Favor Established Infrastructure: Weight investment heavily towards neighborhoods with proven, existing infrastructure like Aldea Zama. This mitigates operational risks associated with basic utilities, access, and tenant satisfaction that plague developing areas.
- Conduct Enhanced Due Diligence: Given the opacity of official data, on-the-ground verification of infrastructure status is critical. Scrutinize developer rental income pro-formas against current market performance data, which indicates a highly competitive and low-occupancy environment.
