Cancún

The Cancún real estate market in 2026 presents a compelling growth narrative, underpinned by significant government infrastructure investment, including the Nichupté Bridge and Parque Cancún. This is coupled with sustained demand from international buyers, which is driving high absorption rates and price appreciation, particularly within the luxury residential sector. Current market indicators, such as a city-wide median price of $3,229/m², reflect a robust appetite for premium assets.

Conversely, the market faces material headwinds that warrant a cautious approach. Key concerns include a significant risk of oversupply in the affordable housing market due to a massive increase in planned construction. Furthermore, a noticeable disparity between high hotel occupancy and lower vacation rental occupancy suggests a potential saturation of the short-term rental market. The market's high dependency on tourism also exposes it to vulnerability from global economic downturns.

The market is best classified as a bifurcated environment, with distinct performance characteristics between its premium and affordable segments.

Our assessment indicates that Cancún is a market of dualities requiring a highly selective investment strategy. While the headline sell-through rate of 40.8% is moderate, it masks the underlying strength in the premium sector. The primary opportunity lies in capitalizing on the demand from affluent international buyers and the positive impact of new infrastructure on specific, high-barrier-to-entry submarkets.

Conversely, significant risk exists in the commoditized segments of the market. We recommend avoiding broad-market exposure and focusing on assets with clear, defensible competitive advantages.

• Prioritize Trophy Assets: Focus acquisition efforts on high-end, water-front properties in master-planned communities like Puerto Cancún and infrastructure-boosted areas like Nichupte Lagoon, which cater to inelastic international demand.
• Exercise Caution on Short-Term Rentals: Underwrite short-term rental assets with conservative occupancy assumptions, given the potential for market saturation. Favor properties with unique amenities or locations that command premium rates.
• Monitor Supply Pipelines: Avoid exposure to the affordable and mid-tier residential sectors where the risk of oversupply is most acute. Continuously monitor construction pipelines to preemptively identify submarkets facing dilutive new inventory.