Executive Summary
This week's data validates our defensive posture, with severe STR saturation in Playa del Carmen and Tulum forcing developers into aggressive 37% discounts and engineered financing to protect IRRs. Conversely, targeted assets in Cozumel's North Hotel Zone are reaching critical scarcity, proving our thesis on diversified demand. Capital must prioritize construction-backed risk de-escalation in Puerto Morelos while ruthlessly exploiting developer distress in oversupplied nodes.
Strategic Absorption & Risk De-Escalation in Cozumel and Puerto Morelos
As outlined in our House Views, Cozumel and Puerto Morelos require highly defensive, hyper-localized underwriting to mitigate severe macro-level risks. In Cozumel, our mandate to strictly avoid the cruise-dependent South Hotel Zone and target the North Hotel Zone is validated by this week's data: Elementos Life (Northern Hotel Zone) has reached critical scarcity with only 4 units remaining. This rapid absorption velocity confirms strong demand for diversified, turnkey assets insulated from cruise volatility. Meanwhile, in Puerto Morelos, where we track 17% annual appreciation but severe infrastructural headwinds, risk de-escalation is paramount. The rapid vertical construction progress at Piedra de Mar (first-floor slabs pouring) and Musa del Puerto provides crucial execution certainty. By targeting assets with verified construction momentum, we can capture high-yield tourist demand while navigating the market's drainage and sewage vulnerabilities.
The "Plain English" Translation
We only buy in specific neighborhoods to avoid big risks. In Cozumel, the northern area is selling out fast, proving our strategy to avoid the cruise-ship crowds works. In Puerto Morelos, the city has plumbing and infrastructure issues, so we are only looking at projects that are already successfully building out of the ground, which lowers our risk of a project stalling.
STR Saturation Forces Aggressive Capital Cost Adjustments in Playa & Tulum
As noted in our monthly research, the STR markets in Playa del Carmen and Tulum are saturating. Consequently, developers are being forced to engineer aggressive discounts and creative financing structures to clear inventory and hedge against rising costs of capital. This week's data is a glaring indicator of this structural shift: Costa Caribe in Tulum is offering unprecedented discounts of up to 37%, while Playa del Carmen developers (DK 42, DK 44) are deploying 30/70 deferred payment plans and artificially fixing exchange rates at $17.20 MXN to stimulate absorption. Furthermore, Miraluna's introduction of 20-year financing at fixed rates (3-8%) highlights a pivot toward long-term debt to offset softening occupancy and hedge against TIIE volatility. Institutional capital must view these not merely as "great promos," but as distress signals requiring rigorous IRR recalculations and a demand for higher risk premiums.
The "Plain English" Translation
There are too many Airbnb rentals in Playa del Carmen and Tulum right now. Because of this, developers are panicking and offering massive discounts (up to 37%) and crazy payment plans just to get people to buy. These aren't just fun sales events; they are warning signs that the market is slowing down, meaning we need to be extra careful about what we pay for properties here.
Weekly Market Briefs
- Bacalar | Aldea Mayab: Prices have increased across multiple units, now starting from $330,000 USD, reflecting the continued surge in barefoot luxe demand.
- Tulum | Kahya: Level 3 units are officially sold out, demonstrating sustained absorption velocity for eco-friendly inventory despite broader market saturation.
- Playa del Carmen | Maia: Vertical construction has reached the 7th level, significantly de-risking the asset for early-stage capital deployers.
- Tulum | Vernal: Developer is offering up to 8% discounts and flexible payment plans for February 2026 delivery to maintain sales velocity.
- Bacalar | Aldea Kalan: Friends & Family phase activated with 6% off list prices, offering early entry into this high-growth, high-risk emerging market.
